We are going to find out who is smarter - me or Karl Rove (and his billion dollar political machine). In an article in the Wall Street Journal Rove says Romney will win with at least 279 electoral votes, but he thinks probably more. I think Karl is suffering from a little wishful thinking. Of course, Karl knows that by just writing such an article in such a paper he may sway a few votes. So we will never know whether he really thinks Romney will get 279+ or whether he is just being a good party man and singing the assigned chorus.
It looks to me like the electoral vote will go 332-206 for Obama. Unlike Mr. Rove I put my best guess in map form below. Election Night could very well be an exercise in frustration for a guy that has been running for president longer than Al Gore did. Romney could carry Ohio and Florida and still lose 285-253. Actually, the very best scenario for Romney is that he wins Ohio, Florida, Colorado, and Nevada- and still loses 270- 268. Of the states I have not named here there is virtually no doubt how they will vote. Recently there has been talk that more states are in play for Romney, e.g. Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Iowa. No reasonable person would think MI, WI, or PA would vote for Romney. Look at 2008 county by county results from IA and VA and you see clearly the counties won by Obama are not demographically inclined to vote for Romney. There is no way this looks good for Romney. He has no path to victory. We picked a bad candidate, again, and we will lose, again.
I do not hate Romney. I am not trying to pick on him or tick anybody off. I am just drawing a conclusion based on a county by county look at the swing states. The 2012 electoral map will look exactly like the 2008 map EXCEPT that Romney will likely win back North Carolina and Indiana. The flash of blue tint on those two states will undoubtedly turn back to red. Other than North Carolina and Indiana, there are no counties in swing states that voted for Obama in ’08 that will vote for Romney in ’12. Therefore, in the counties where Romney does win he must have a bigger turnout of the base than McCain did in ’08. For Romney to get a bigger turnout than McCain is asking a lot. The base is less happy with Romney than they were with McCain. I do not know if a presidential/vice-presidential ticket has ever lost the home states of both candidates, but it sure looks like such will be the case this year.
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Karl Rove's Electoral vote prediction
A crucial element: the mix of Democrats and Republicans who show up this election
31 October 2012 Karl Rove
In addition to the data, the anecdotal and intangible evidence—from crowd sizes to each side's closing arguments — give the sense that the odds favor Mr. Romney. They do. My prediction: Sometime after the cock crows on the morning of Nov. 7, Mitt Romney will be declared America's 45th president. Let's call it 51%-48%, with Mr. Romney carrying at least 279 Electoral College votes, probably more.
Mr. Rove, a former deputy chief of staff to President George W. Bush, helped organize the political action committee American Crossroads.
A version of this article appeared November 1, 2012, on page A15 in the U.S. edition of The Wall Street Journal, with the headline: Sifting the Numbers for a Winner.
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Top Ohio Republicans Ask Why Party Lost
Failed Voter Turnout, a Surge of African-Americans at the Polls and a Lack of Love for the Candidate Cited as Explanations
11 November 2012
Neil King Jr.
Top Ohio Republicans and aides to Mitt Romney's presidential campaign remain flabbergasted over what went wrong Tuesday in a do-or-die state they thought they would win all the way up to the final hours.
Was it a failed voter-turnout operation? An unforeseen surge in African-American voters? A lack of real love for the candidate?
Ohio Republicans see evidence for all those explanations, a surprise after their polls and modeling of the electorate told them that a late tide of enthusiasm and a large swing among independent voters would push Mr. Romney over the top ...