www.theoxfordscientist.com
Ukraine
... the Putin Doctrine
Eric LaMont Gregory
Independence Square - Maidan - Kiev, Ukraine
... it does not portray to the rest of the world just who we are
... it does not portray to the rest of the world just who we are
If, the Ukraine were located within the Western Hemisphere, Washington would invoke the Monroe Doctrine. The Europeans could shout about sovereignty, international law, self-determination as much as they like and the
USA would act according to the prerogatives of that long-standing doctrine and the understandings concerning the hegemony of the US in this Hemisphere that it conveys, full stop.
It would be reasonable to assume from CNN and the Fox News Network broadcasts that other than the Russian majority in the Crimean Peninsula, the rest of EuroMaidan was composed of predominantly ethnic Ukrainians. Perhaps the map below of the election results from the 2010 presidential election between Yanukovych - blue - and Tymoshenko - yellow -, will help to dispel that notion. Although an ethno-linguistic map of the Ukraine closely follows the depicted election results and outwardly suggests that Ukrainians voted along ethno-linguistic
lines; however, the situation is much, much more complicated.
The other talking point, especially on CNN is to equate Putin as a fascist. Nothing could be further from the truth.
Putin, in fact, may be the least ultra-nationalistic leader of a major power on this planet.
A chat with Netanyahu about the Jewish population in Russia might be instructive in this regard. Politics, like other aspects of human interaction is full of inconsistencies, which all too often leave those who do not know history to repeat it. One striking example is that many young Ukrainian Jews, when hundreds of thousands took to the streets of Kiev, found themselves in an unholy alliance with the ultra-nationalist Svoboda party. Driving a wedge between young and older members of the Jewish community, who remember that an association of that nature led to the unthinkable, but that was another time and another place where ultra-nationalism and fascism reigned supreme.
USA would act according to the prerogatives of that long-standing doctrine and the understandings concerning the hegemony of the US in this Hemisphere that it conveys, full stop.
It would be reasonable to assume from CNN and the Fox News Network broadcasts that other than the Russian majority in the Crimean Peninsula, the rest of EuroMaidan was composed of predominantly ethnic Ukrainians. Perhaps the map below of the election results from the 2010 presidential election between Yanukovych - blue - and Tymoshenko - yellow -, will help to dispel that notion. Although an ethno-linguistic map of the Ukraine closely follows the depicted election results and outwardly suggests that Ukrainians voted along ethno-linguistic
lines; however, the situation is much, much more complicated.
The other talking point, especially on CNN is to equate Putin as a fascist. Nothing could be further from the truth.
Putin, in fact, may be the least ultra-nationalistic leader of a major power on this planet.
A chat with Netanyahu about the Jewish population in Russia might be instructive in this regard. Politics, like other aspects of human interaction is full of inconsistencies, which all too often leave those who do not know history to repeat it. One striking example is that many young Ukrainian Jews, when hundreds of thousands took to the streets of Kiev, found themselves in an unholy alliance with the ultra-nationalist Svoboda party. Driving a wedge between young and older members of the Jewish community, who remember that an association of that nature led to the unthinkable, but that was another time and another place where ultra-nationalism and fascism reigned supreme.
Unlike the current administration in Washington, who has toyed with the idea vis-à-vis the US domestic spying scandal that a nation can accommodate a small amount of fascism—Putin is under no such delusion.
He, finds himself on the eastern end of a troubling corridor of expanding xenophobic ultra-nationalists parties stretching from the eastern shoes of the Atlantic Ocean to the northern coast of the Black Sea (see map below).
Although it does not fit neatly with decades of anti-communist hysteria in the United States, the people of Russia and its environs have always feared fascism more than the democratic market economies.
He, finds himself on the eastern end of a troubling corridor of expanding xenophobic ultra-nationalists parties stretching from the eastern shoes of the Atlantic Ocean to the northern coast of the Black Sea (see map below).
Although it does not fit neatly with decades of anti-communist hysteria in the United States, the people of Russia and its environs have always feared fascism more than the democratic market economies.
Green depicts those countries with significant ultra-nationalistic groups.
A lot has changed in Europe over the last three decades, in the 1980s no xenophobic European party could attain the 5% minimum voter threshold that was typically required to enter government, but these groups now constitute as much as 28% of the parliament in countries like Austria, 18% in France, 26% in Switzerland, in Hungary the Jobbik Party garnered 17% of the votes in the general election and in an alliance with others of the same ilk gained 47 seats in the Hungarian parliament. 11% of the legislature of the Ukraine is largely represented by the far-right All Ukrainian Union - Svoboda.
We could compare and contrast the Putin Doctrine of staving off the possibility of an ethnic Balkanization of the Ukraine, with the splendid way the governments of Europe upheld the border agreements as the Former Yugoslavia dissolved into chaos.
But that was another time and another place.
An analysis of Putin’s foreign policy with that emanating from Washington would also be worthwhile, but there is no coherent foreign policy emanating from Washington available for comparison.
Remembering that the demonstrations on Independence Square or Maidan, began when President Viktor Yanukovych, ostensibly as a result of pressure from Russia, unilaterally suspended preparations for signing a European Union trade agreement that would have eased both the import of European products into the Ukraine and travel for Ukrainians to Europe.
And here again the news media in the US has repeatedly stated that Yanukovych blocked a European Union-Ukraine ‘association’ agreement. In fact, what was on offer to the Ukraine was a first small step, a trade and travel agreement—a first date, not a marriage proposal.
If, that is in fact the case, despite President Obama’s statement to the contrary, there is an element of East West tension at the heart of the current heightened awareness of the Ukraine on the world stage.
Despite the rather obvious financial and political difficulties the people of the Ukraine find themselves in, what must not happen is the disintegration of their woes into an ethnic conflict. And, it is in this arena that President Obama carries moral authority, as a product of the non-violent school of societal change.
The forces driving the confrontation with Russia include Wall Street, the stock market, which recently underwent a steep fall followed the next day by a dramatic rise. But that is the nature of the rumor mill. That is the way the stock market began in the cafes and tea houses of London. Someone enters the café with the ominous news that the ship’s cargo they had invested in may have encountered pirates. Panic sets in and those investors who could offload their stock, even at a greatly reduced price, did so. Then a few days later a message is circulated that the ship will arrive in less than a week with its cargo intact. Those who bought during the rumor-driven cheap selloff just made a lot of money.
Over the last few days a lot of money has been made and lost on Wall Street. The fruit it seems, never falls far from the tree.
The oil companies know that other than a strengthening economy, the only thing that will drive up the price of gas is war—or the threat thereof.
Speaker of the House, Boehner and the other xenophobic leaders of the Republican Party are doing all they can to justify a reversal in the intention of the Obama administration to reduce the size of our military forces. But it is a hollow cry for freedom for the distant people of Ukraine, when on the same day the State of Florida refused to admit a Mexican American to the bar, because his parents brought him to the USA when he was nine years old. A fate he would not have suffered in California.
Perhaps, our third in the line of succession speaker, will venture into the Ukraine, where because he understands so little about the dynamics of Ukrainian politics would inevitably be photographed with members of the ultra-nationalistic All Ukrainian Union Party. And that would surpass McCain's photo in Syria with members of Al Qaida. It is noteworthy in all the speakers bellowing out about the legitimate aspirations of the Ukrainian people he failed to distance himself from from the rather obvious, but dangerous undercurrents of ultra-nationlism there.
It defies rational discernment, why President Obama, the leader of a Superpower, is buying into the press and congressional uproar to join in the chorus of great powers who want to punish Russia, albetit with even less dramatic measures than the blantantly bland Executive Order signed by the president.
It does not portray to the rest of the world just who we are.
Poppycock.
We are a superpower, President Obama. And, phone calls are interesting, but they are no substitute for summitry, Reykjavik beckons. Let the Europeans calculate where their magic Keystone pipeline is that will free them from their dependence on Russia for gas. While in Iceland, President Obama, Syria and the very positive role that Putin can play there, must be an agenda item.
It is interesting that in the five years of the Obama presidency neither CNN nor Fox has asked any foreign leader, or members of their legislatures, on air, what they thought of Boehner and the Republican party leadership. Because the most favorable comments come from the most virulent ultra-nationalistic groups in those countries and that is a bridge too far for the American media to cross. So they ignore the issue altogether, nevertheless the association between ultra conseratives in the US and the British National Party is extremely well-documented.
Odd is it not that Obama and Putin should be opposed by the same ultra-nationalistic tendencies.
Even as the Ukraine sinks into chaos, it is not too late for the people of the Ukraine to reject the ultra-nationalist Svoboda party and seek an accomodation with Putin and the Russian people and live to fight another day. Otherwise the Ukraine will be another Molodova, small and poor, and not part of a rich united Ukraine.
It should not go without notice that on the day the Speaker of the House was lauding the takeover of the Ukrainian seat of power, members of the ultra-nationalist Svoboda party, those same leaders who took the Ukraininan people on the the streets in protest, raided the headquaters of the Ukrainian Broadcasting authority and alomg with a group of brown shirts physically assaulted the head of the broadcasting group and forced him to sign a letter of resignation, which they had drafted. This was in response to a series of broadcasts about the Svoboda Party.
Not the sort of - I disagree with what you say, but will fight to the death to defend your right to say it, that Americans outside of the Speakers leadership circle stand for.
A very few months ago, seems like ages now, but just a short while ago the headlines concerned Kerry's ability to assume the helm of the US State Department, given the miriad of problems with which the new Secretary of State would have to deal with. Considering the secretaries recent rant about Putin somehow not knowing that the Soviet Union had been dissolved, the debacle that was and is Syria, a bus load of female students being slaughtered by Al Qaeda of Nigeria about which there is a strange silence from State, the missing Malaysian commercial airliner with two Iranians on it who bought tickets with cash at the last minute even though their passports were stolen, and the celebratory gathering in the Yemen by Al Qaeda to flaunt the demise of MH370 - the broadcast media seems to have lost sight that Kerry's wisdom to deal with all or any of these issues is still very much in question.
We could compare and contrast the Putin Doctrine of staving off the possibility of an ethnic Balkanization of the Ukraine, with the splendid way the governments of Europe upheld the border agreements as the Former Yugoslavia dissolved into chaos.
But that was another time and another place.
An analysis of Putin’s foreign policy with that emanating from Washington would also be worthwhile, but there is no coherent foreign policy emanating from Washington available for comparison.
Remembering that the demonstrations on Independence Square or Maidan, began when President Viktor Yanukovych, ostensibly as a result of pressure from Russia, unilaterally suspended preparations for signing a European Union trade agreement that would have eased both the import of European products into the Ukraine and travel for Ukrainians to Europe.
And here again the news media in the US has repeatedly stated that Yanukovych blocked a European Union-Ukraine ‘association’ agreement. In fact, what was on offer to the Ukraine was a first small step, a trade and travel agreement—a first date, not a marriage proposal.
If, that is in fact the case, despite President Obama’s statement to the contrary, there is an element of East West tension at the heart of the current heightened awareness of the Ukraine on the world stage.
Despite the rather obvious financial and political difficulties the people of the Ukraine find themselves in, what must not happen is the disintegration of their woes into an ethnic conflict. And, it is in this arena that President Obama carries moral authority, as a product of the non-violent school of societal change.
The forces driving the confrontation with Russia include Wall Street, the stock market, which recently underwent a steep fall followed the next day by a dramatic rise. But that is the nature of the rumor mill. That is the way the stock market began in the cafes and tea houses of London. Someone enters the café with the ominous news that the ship’s cargo they had invested in may have encountered pirates. Panic sets in and those investors who could offload their stock, even at a greatly reduced price, did so. Then a few days later a message is circulated that the ship will arrive in less than a week with its cargo intact. Those who bought during the rumor-driven cheap selloff just made a lot of money.
Over the last few days a lot of money has been made and lost on Wall Street. The fruit it seems, never falls far from the tree.
The oil companies know that other than a strengthening economy, the only thing that will drive up the price of gas is war—or the threat thereof.
Speaker of the House, Boehner and the other xenophobic leaders of the Republican Party are doing all they can to justify a reversal in the intention of the Obama administration to reduce the size of our military forces. But it is a hollow cry for freedom for the distant people of Ukraine, when on the same day the State of Florida refused to admit a Mexican American to the bar, because his parents brought him to the USA when he was nine years old. A fate he would not have suffered in California.
Perhaps, our third in the line of succession speaker, will venture into the Ukraine, where because he understands so little about the dynamics of Ukrainian politics would inevitably be photographed with members of the ultra-nationalistic All Ukrainian Union Party. And that would surpass McCain's photo in Syria with members of Al Qaida. It is noteworthy in all the speakers bellowing out about the legitimate aspirations of the Ukrainian people he failed to distance himself from from the rather obvious, but dangerous undercurrents of ultra-nationlism there.
It defies rational discernment, why President Obama, the leader of a Superpower, is buying into the press and congressional uproar to join in the chorus of great powers who want to punish Russia, albetit with even less dramatic measures than the blantantly bland Executive Order signed by the president.
It does not portray to the rest of the world just who we are.
Poppycock.
We are a superpower, President Obama. And, phone calls are interesting, but they are no substitute for summitry, Reykjavik beckons. Let the Europeans calculate where their magic Keystone pipeline is that will free them from their dependence on Russia for gas. While in Iceland, President Obama, Syria and the very positive role that Putin can play there, must be an agenda item.
It is interesting that in the five years of the Obama presidency neither CNN nor Fox has asked any foreign leader, or members of their legislatures, on air, what they thought of Boehner and the Republican party leadership. Because the most favorable comments come from the most virulent ultra-nationalistic groups in those countries and that is a bridge too far for the American media to cross. So they ignore the issue altogether, nevertheless the association between ultra conseratives in the US and the British National Party is extremely well-documented.
Odd is it not that Obama and Putin should be opposed by the same ultra-nationalistic tendencies.
Even as the Ukraine sinks into chaos, it is not too late for the people of the Ukraine to reject the ultra-nationalist Svoboda party and seek an accomodation with Putin and the Russian people and live to fight another day. Otherwise the Ukraine will be another Molodova, small and poor, and not part of a rich united Ukraine.
It should not go without notice that on the day the Speaker of the House was lauding the takeover of the Ukrainian seat of power, members of the ultra-nationalist Svoboda party, those same leaders who took the Ukraininan people on the the streets in protest, raided the headquaters of the Ukrainian Broadcasting authority and alomg with a group of brown shirts physically assaulted the head of the broadcasting group and forced him to sign a letter of resignation, which they had drafted. This was in response to a series of broadcasts about the Svoboda Party.
Not the sort of - I disagree with what you say, but will fight to the death to defend your right to say it, that Americans outside of the Speakers leadership circle stand for.
A very few months ago, seems like ages now, but just a short while ago the headlines concerned Kerry's ability to assume the helm of the US State Department, given the miriad of problems with which the new Secretary of State would have to deal with. Considering the secretaries recent rant about Putin somehow not knowing that the Soviet Union had been dissolved, the debacle that was and is Syria, a bus load of female students being slaughtered by Al Qaeda of Nigeria about which there is a strange silence from State, the missing Malaysian commercial airliner with two Iranians on it who bought tickets with cash at the last minute even though their passports were stolen, and the celebratory gathering in the Yemen by Al Qaeda to flaunt the demise of MH370 - the broadcast media seems to have lost sight that Kerry's wisdom to deal with all or any of these issues is still very much in question.
Eric LaMont Gregory, an Oxford-educated diplomat, scientist and author, for more than four decades operated in the highly secretive corridors of the upper chambers of international intrigue and power.
The Ultimate Vanishing Act reveals how different the Middle East, Central, South and South East Asia, North Africa, Europe as well as the Americas would be today, had it not been for some rather monumental errors emanating not only from Washington, London, Paris, Berlin, Brussels and other European capitals, but also from Moscow, Beijing as well as Tokyo and New Delhi.
The Ultimate Vanishing Act is a must read book for anyone who wants to understand current world events, and the onset and the assiduous surge of radical Islamic terrorism and insurgency on a global scale.
